多空一线：成荣集团反弹上试 RM2.57

摘自：南洋网

成荣集团（Mudajya，5085，主板建筑股）於8月1日反弹了，闭市时收2.56令吉，按日涨5仙或1.99%。

该股的日线图表走势於8月1日间的交投趋势上破一道下降趋势线（B1:B2）上报收。

成荣集团60分钟线平滑异同移动均线指标（MACD）於8月1日的反弹走势已渐转强。

成荣集团继续处於“0”支撑线上波动，该股的後市的交投走势料会出现一段巩固反弹趋势。

成荣集团日线图表走势会於8月2日间将会显现一段持续性反弹趋势中，或会上探2.57-2.70令吉关口。

敏源 技术分析教父

MUDAJYA 目标价：RM2.88 (OSK - 23/7/23)

It's been four months since we highlighted that Mudajaya's potential coal supply woes in India could jeopardize its maiden IPP venture via 26%-owned RKM Powergen. 

 

As the current situation remains in deadlock pending the conclusion of FSAs, we are revisiting the latest developments in India's coal and power industry. 

 

Maintain NEUTRAL on Mudajaya pending the long-awaited signing of the FSA between RKM Powergen and CIL. Our FV is unchanged at RM2.88, pegged at a 50% discount to our SOP valuation.

CIL board meeting postponed again. Coal India's (CIL) board meeting to decide on the contentious fuel supply agreements (FSAs) with power companies, initially scheduled for 10 July, has been postponed for the 5^th time to 31 July. Previously, most power producers were reluctant to agree to the terms proposed by CIL due to the unacceptably low penalty of 0.01% of the shortfall should CIL fail to deliver 80% of the committed quantum. Following this, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) had intervened and proposed to raise the penalty to 10% of the shortfall while at the same time reducing the commitment level to 65% of the annual contracted quantity for the first three years and 80% thereafter. We understand that PMO and CIL are currently negotiating on potential revision of the penalty clause but a decision has yet to be made.

Further delays likely. CIL has thus far signed 27 out of the 48 FSAs due this year, as state power ministers have warned that 55 of the 89 thermal plants in India are currently running on low capacity due to fuel shortages. Despite PMO leading the discussions, we foresee further delays in firming up the FSAs as the final decision would have to take into account CIL's ability to ramp up its production instantly. This in turn would depend on other factors, such as its existing manpower, issuance of mining approvals from the relevant authorities, as well as potentially increasing coal imports, which would translate into higher electricity tariffs and may in turn spark off unrest among locals.      

Mining rights hard to come by. To boost coal production, CIL would have to be assured of mining rights over the coal-rich areas identified. We understand CIL's inability to increase production is largely due to delay in approvals from the authorities. Under the Environment Protection Act 1987, mining projects in India require environmental clearance from the Environment Appraisal Committee before physical extraction works can commence. Experts said these approvals are hard to come by. CIL now has 102 mining proposals pending clearance at different levels. Should all these be approved, these projects would contribute over 600m tonnes of coal vis-''-vis CIL's 2011 production of 435m tonnes. For the FSAs to be finalized, we believe the government of India would have to accelerate the procedures in obtaining approvals to entice CIL to revise the penalty clause.

Coal imports likely to increase. According to India's latest 12^th five-year plan covering 2012 to 2017, the nation's coal imports are likely to hit 185m tonnes by 2017 from the projected 137m by the end of this year. The sharp increase is mainly due to the anticipated spike in demand from the power sector, which is expected to make up 75% of India's total coal demand by 2017. In its last 11^th plan covering 2007 to 2012, total demand for coal grew by about 8.0% p.a. against the domestic production growth of only 4.6% p.a. Going forward, we expect the deficit between domestic demand for coal and domestic supply of coal to widen further. This is likely to compel CIL to source its coal production from the international market.  

Potential coal price pooling. With these in mind, India's Ministry of Power as well as most power producers have agreed in general to the price pooling model for coal purchases initially proposed by the Ministry of Coal. Price pooling essentially means common pricing for coal of similar grade. These prices are calculated based on the average prices of imported and domestic coal and all consumers equally share the common prices. According to the model, CIL will import coal and then supply it to power generators. Power plants in coastal areas will be supplied 30% of their total requirement in imported coal, while those within 300 km of the coastline will be supplied 15%. The rest of the generators will use 100% domestic coal. The resultant increase in coal prices will be distributed equally among all consumers irrespective of the coal supplied. Although the proposal is still at a rather preliminary stage, we deem it as a huge positive step should it materialize, as it would help to even out the impact of expensive imported fuel for power generation. Should the PMO endorse the initiative, this would help to alleviate concerns on shortage of domestic coal production and more importantly, make it obligatory for all state electricity boards to revise their electricity tariffs accordingly, whether willingly or not.

Introducing FY14 numbers. While we make no changes to our FY12 and FY13 forecasts, we take the opportunity to introduce our FY14 numbers, with our revenue and core earnings forecasts of RM1.29bn and RM342.7m respectively. At first glance, this implies negative growth of 34.9% at Mudajaya's topline level, primarily attributed to the expected completion of works on the Chhattisgarh site by FY13. Its core earnings, on the other hand, is expected to inch up by 3.1% from FY13, thanks to the full-year contribution from RKM Powergen's IPP operations in India, which we expect to bring in some RM95.3m in FY14. 

Maintain NEUTRAL. Overall, the latest developments in India's coal and power industry remain somewhat inconclusive but we see some upside in the potential coal price pooling model as an alternative should domestic coal production fall short, which in our view is more likely than not. Nonetheless, we continue to take a cautious stance on Mudajaya pending the signing of the FSA between RKM Powergen and CIL. We believe that this or the official implementation of coal price pooling, could prove crucial in assuaging fears over state electricity boards' reluctance to increase their tariffs, lacking an official directive from PMO. All in, we maintain our NEUTRAL call for now, at an unchanged FV of RM2.88, pegged at a 50% discount to our SOP valuation. The steep discount to the entire SOP value is due to the fact that a sizeable 80% of the group's earnings comes from the Chhattisgarh project.

Daily Trading Stocks: Kimlun Corp Bhd

Kimlum may decline further after closing at the five-month low yesterday. 

A position can be liquidated below RM1.45 and support is anticipated at RM1.35, and a stronger one at Feb’s low of RM1.30. 

The weak bias is only cancelled if it can close above June’s high of RM1.55. 

Resistance is expected at RM1.62 and RM1.70.

Source: OSK

热门股：马电讯 上探RM5.82

摘自：南洋网

马电讯（TM，4863，主板贸服股 ）于7月12日间显现着一段技术反弹趋势后于闭市时报5.81令吉，按日起7仙或1.22%。它于昨日高开后收高，整日波幅介于14仙（5.70-5.84令吉）间。 

短期间该股或会尝试上探5.82-5.95令吉间的阻力关口。

 

【12/7/12行情】

闭市：5.81令吉
起落：+7仙
最高：5.84令吉
最低：5.70令吉
成交量：104288宗
本益比：17.447倍
毛周息率：3.373%
52周最高：5.85令吉
52周最低：3.75令吉

多空一线:成荣集团上探RM2.78

摘自：南洋网

成荣集团（Mudajya，5085，主贸服股）于6月6 日闭市时反弹了。

它于闭市时收2.77令吉，按日涨9仙或3.36%。

成荣集团的60分钟线图表走势于6月6日间的交投趋势上破一道短期下降趋势线（B1:B2）后继续往上爬升。

它的60分钟线平滑异同移动均线指标 (MACD) 于6月6日间的反弹交投走势已告转强。

它继续处于“0”支撑线上波动，该股的后市的交投走势料会出现一段巩固反弹趋势。

成荣集团60分钟线图表走势于6月6日间将会显现一段持续性反弹趋势中，或会上探2.78-2.90令吉关口。

6/6/12 行情：
闭市：RM2.77
本益比：5.723
毛周息率：2.888%

证券行如何看 KIMLUN

5月30日共有3家证券行对金轮企业进行评估，给与的价格介于 RM1.77 至 RM2.37 之间。以目前股价 RM1.47 来算，如果股价可以反映金轮企业的真正价值，那么至少还有 20-60% 的上涨空间。

2011财政年KIMLUN 共派息 RM0.051,以股价 RM1.47 来算，周息率达3.5%，和银行存款利率不相伯仲。

目前股价一直在 RM1.48 徘徊，等着突破下一个 RM1.50 关卡。

MUDAJYA 2012 第一季业绩

MUDAJYA 最新一季的业绩出炉了！

2012 财政年第一季的业绩（Revenue) 比 2011 财政年第一季的业绩增加了97%，净利（Net profit) 也从 RM41,245,000 增加至 RM 74,242,000。

每股净利 (EPS) 为每股 13.61 sen，最新公布的股息为每股 4 sen。

难怪28日成荣集团的股价突然飙升 11 sen (4.28%)，原来是有好消息（业绩增加和派息）的缘故。也因为这个好消息，股价也开始有所突破，再次挑战 RM 2.80 这个价位。

不过这次它上升趋势可以持续多久，非常难说，而且不知道这个突破下降趋势的讯号是真是假。

希望它可以再接再厉，一举突破 RM 2.80 这重要关卡。一旦突破了，就可以挑战 RM 3.00 这一关卡。

MUDAJYA: 目标价 RM2.98 (Jupiter - 11/5/12)

MUDAJYA ( 5085 )

Targeting 2.98

Stop loss 2.63

Resistance : 2.90 - 2.98
Support : 2.63

RSI of 49
RSI is rising

STOCHASTIC
It is on an upswing

Comment
The current recovery is heading for 2.90, then 2.98

Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 2.63

Source:Jupiter Securities Research 11 May 2012

成荣集团再试RM2.70

摘自：南洋网


成荣集团（Mudajya，5085，主板建筑股）于5月2日闭市时收2.69令吉，起11仙或4.26%。

该股于5月2日间上破一道中期下降趋势线（B1:B2）上报收。

成荣集团60分钟分时线平滑异同移动均线指标(MACD) 于5月2日处于一道短期技术反弹趋势中。

该股60分钟分时线图于5月2日的分时趋势或会处于一段短线反弹走势中。

成荣集团或会于近期间展开短线巩固后始能恢复前期涨势时再度上探2.70-2.85令吉的阻力关口。

MUDAJYA 有望继续上探吗？

MUDAJYA 今天突破下降趋势，MACD蓝线尝试突破红线，量也增加了，那么股价有望继续上探吗？

热门股：马银行 上探RM8.65

摘自：南洋网

周五盘中，马银行（Maybank，1155，主板金融股）的行情显现着一段技术反弹趋势，闭市时报8.64令吉，涨12仙或1.41%。

此股在高开后逐步反弹，全天在8.52-8.64令吉，12仙间波动，短期或会上探8.65-8.85令吉间的阻力位。

【27/4/12行情】

闭市：8.64令吉

起落：+12仙

最高：8.64令吉

最低：8.52令吉

成交量：55524宗

本益比：25.102倍

毛周息率：4.167%

52周最高：9.00令吉

52周最低：7.35令吉

下跌股：国油石化 回试RM6.55

摘自：南洋网

国油石化（PChem ，5183，主板工业产品股）日线趋势于4月20日间调整近期的涨幅时，陷入短期巩固回调趋势中，下破6.70令吉支撑线后以6.56令吉闭市，按日跌14仙或2.09%。

它的近期股价趋势将会回试6.55-6.69令吉水平间。

【20/4/12行情】

闭市：6.56令吉

起落：-14仙

最高：6.70令吉

最低：6.56令吉

成交量：64196宗

本益比：19.879倍

毛周息率：2.439%

52周最高：7.36令吉

52周最低：5.23令吉

热门股：旧街场白咖啡 挑战RM1.65

摘自：南洋网

旧街场白咖啡（OldTown，5201，主板贸服股）日线趋势于4于20日间显现着一段反弹趋势后，闭市时收1.55令吉，按日涨4仙或2.65%。

它于昨日高开后开始反弹了。

短期间该股或会再挑1.56-1.65令吉间的阻力关口。

  

【20/4/12行情】

闭市：1.55令吉

起落：+4仙

最高：1.57令吉

最低：1.50令吉

成交量：64890宗

本益比：7.696倍

毛周息率：4.194%

52周最高：1.57令吉

52周最低：88.5仙