卖出 KIMLUN 4700 units

终于在昨天作出了这个决定- 卖出 KIMLUN 4700 units @RM1.90。

会选择卖出的原因为：

1. 持有 KIMLUN 一年多，总回酬20%+。
2. 目前 RSI>70%， MACD 转弱。
3. 股价创52星期新高，不过在 RM1.90 左右遇阻。
4. 各个股票行给于的目标价在 RM2.20 左右，如果折价20%的话，目标为 RM1.80 左右。

综合以上的原因，我最终选择退场。

虽然我不知道是否卖的太快，不过我只赚我能赚的，之后的就让给别人去赚吧。

题外话：昨天马股上升 7.99点，报收 1777.15点。
成交量为29亿，成交总值为28亿..
开始沸腾了吗？

KIMLUN 目标价： RM 2.05 (RHB - 25/1/13)

Kimlun Corp - Icing On The Cake (With Caramel Dressing)

“Icing” – concrete products. We believe its building material division is where Kimlun’s “x-factor” lies. The growth story of Kimlun’s building material division is not one of “potential”, but of “actual”, given the expansion plans that are already completing. More importantly, the key investment, i.e. slightly more than RM60m in a greenfield project in Seremban, Negeri Sembilan, is backed by RM271.7m secured orders from the Sg Buloh – Kajang (SBK) MRT Line project.
 
“The cake” - construction. Kimlun guided new contract wins of about RM800m in FY12/13 (or annually on average). It has started FY12/13 on a strong footing, having already been awarded by SP Setia a RM87.7m apartment building job in Johor last week, boosting its outstanding construction orderbook to RM1.3-1.4bn.
 
“Caramel dressing” – property development. Kimlun does not aspire to become a major property developer. The underlying guiding principles for this business are “opportunistic” and “fast turnaround”. It is about to put onto the market a small-office-home-office (SOHO)/office project in Cyberjaya with a projected GDV of RM230-240m.
 
Forecasts. FY12/13-14 net profit forecasts are cut by 11-16%, having reduced overall EBIT margin to 8.2-8.5% from 9.4-9.8% to reflect overall cost pressure and lumpy start-up cost at the new plant in Seremban, Negeri Sembilan.
 
Risks. These include: (1) New construction contracts secured in FY12/13-14 coming in below our target of RM800m p.a.; and (2) Escalation in input costs.
 
Maintain BUY. We expect construction stocks to trend downwards during the early part of 2013 as the 13th General Election (GE) deadline draws closer. After the 13th GE and once the dust settles, we believe investors will refocus on fundamentals of construction stocks, that may appear to be reasonably attractive underpinned by a construction upcycle.

We like Kimlun for: (1) Its involvement in the production of concrete products for the Klang Valley MRT project, making it a must-have stock to own along the value chain of this mega public infrastructure project; and (2) Its construction orderbook that is skewed towards building jobs for private-sector property developers that are more defensive and less cyclical vis-a-vis public infrastructure jobs.

Fair value is reduced by 17% from RM2.46 to RM2.05 based on 10x revised FY12/13 EPS, in line with our benchmark 1-year forward target PER of 8-13x for the construction sector.

Source: RHB Research - 25 Jan 2013

Trading Stocks ：KIMLUN (OSK)

Kimlun may climb higher if it can break the RM1.45 resistance level.

A purchase can be made if the stock closes above RM1.45, with a close below RM1.37 as a stop-loss.
The price target is RM1.70, with selling also expected at RM1.55.

Failure to break above RM1.45 will likely see the stock trend sideways, with strong support seen at RM1.30.

个人投资报告 4Q12

虽然踏入股市正式两年，不过今年的回酬还是差强人意。

目前手中股票 80%， 现金20%。

KLCI 至今已从今年年头的 1530.73 上涨到了 31/12/12 的 1688.95，一共涨了 158.22 点或者 10.34%。令人跌破眼镜的是， KLCI 竟然可以在 31/12/12 临尾拉高！我看全世界也只有马来西亚政府会做这样的事情！

言归正传。如今投资组合里只剩下股票： Mudajaya, Kimlun, Uchitec 和 Taann，其中 Mudajaya 和 Kimlun 共占了组合接近 75%。

如果没有将收到的股息计算在内的话，那么今年只有 Mudajaya 给我 4.67% 的资本利得，周息率为 3.61% （只比银行利息好些许），总回酬为 8.27%（资本利得+股息）。

而组合里的其他股票都处于亏损状态，其中以 Kimlun 和 Taann 亏损最为严重，达 8% 和10.8%。只怪当初在高位买入 Kimlun，虽然之后还是有继续加码，不过由于 Kimlun 在调整后处于横摆状态，所以到目前为止还在亏损。而且原本预则 Kimlun 会在 2012年宣布 2012财政年的第一次派息，但结果没有，所以周息率只有 0.8%。

至于会买入 Taann 也是纯粹因为认为它是好公司而买入，结果价钱也是在我买入后跌跌不休，亏损达 10.82%。

2012 年唯一卖出的股票是 RA，一共亏损38%，算是投机失败（原本看好业绩会步步高升）。不过还好金额不大，算是交了学费。

As a conclusion，2012 年我的投资组合总共亏损 6.4%，如果将股息计算在内的话，回酬为 -3.88%，大大落后大市的 10.34%。

KIMLUN 目标价： RM1.87 (ZJ Research) - 3/12/12

3QFY12 Results Review
Kimlun’s 3QFY12 results were within expectation, having delivered a net profit of RM11.8 mln in
3QFY12, bringing 9MFY12 earnings to RM37.2 mln that constituted 79% of our FY12 projection.

9MFY12 turnover soared 43.7% y-o-y on significantly higher contributions from both
construction and manufacturing divisions, which increased 41% and 78% y-o-y respectively.
Management attributed the increase in construction revenue to higher progress billings from
ongoing projects as well as newly secured projects. Meanwhile, increase in sales of tunnel
lining segment (TLS), jacking pipes and pre-stressed planks were the reasons for the jump in
manufacturing turnover.

9MFY12 net profit, as expected, increased by a smaller percentage of just 15.3% y-o-y due to
lower gross margin of the construction projects and higher financing costs incurred to fund its
growth exercise. We note that profit margin from construction decreased to 8.9% in 9MFH12
from 11.2% a year ago. While the manufacturing division achieved a commendable profit
margin of 27.6%, which was up from 22% a year, it was insufficient to offset the decline in
construction margins due to the former’s smaller turnover size. The much larger construction
segment contributed 90.3% and 74.3% to 9MFY12 Group revenue and operating profit
respectively.

Kimlun’s net gearing increased to 0.3x as at end-September 2012, up from 0.2x three months
ago as the Group gears up for its business expansion and undertake more projects. Given the
higher capital outlay, it also continued to incur negative net operating cash flow (NOCF) of
61.569 mln in 9MFY12. Going forward, we opine the negative NOCF situation to remain over
the next few quarters, with net gearing rising to 0.4x-0.5x by year end as management incurs
working capital to fund its maiden property development project in Cyberjaya, Selangor and its
new plant in Senawang, Negeri Sembilan.

We maintain our FY12 net profit of RM47.1 mln at this juncture. We remain positive on Kimlun’s
prospects, premised on the list of ongoing projects in-hand where outstanding order book now
stands at RM1.7 bln as at end-September 2012, providing earnings visibility at least for the next
two years.

Meanwhile, moderating factors would be execution risks faced by Kimlun. Under the present
environment, we believe the Group faces challenges such as rising raw materials cost,
shortage of skilled labours, heavy requirement for initial capital outlay as more projects
commence and higher interest expenses in tandem with increased borrowings.

On its property development ventures, Kimlun is plans to launch its high-rise mixed
development of SOHO and offices project in Cyberjaya by 4QFY12, with an indicative GDV of
RM160 mln – RM170 mln.

Kimlun did not declare any dividend for the quarter under review.

Recommendation
We maintain our Buy recommendation on Kimlun with an unchanged fair value of RM1.87, derived from ascribing a peer-benchmarked PER multiple of 9.5x against our FY12 net profit estimate. We continue to like Kimlun for its i) promising earnings growth prospects which tracks the booming construction sector both in Malaysia and Singapore; ii) healthy balance sheet; iii) proven delivery track record; and iv) growing order book.

Moderating factors however, include increased execution risks as the Group undertakes more projects due to rising raw materials cost and shortage in skilled labours.

Moreover, Kimlun’s declining net profit margin trend (as the Group grows its turnover) may also
dampen investors’ sentiment toward the counter.

个人投资报告 3Q12

哇。。。时间流逝的真快，不知不觉2012 年已经踏入第4季，也是时候要来回顾第三季的投资报告了。

KLCI 至今已从今年年头的 1530.73 上涨到了 28/9/12 的 1636.66，一共涨了 105.93点或者 6%。这段时期内指数最低下探至1502.09，最高则上升至 1655.49，也创造了大马股市的历史新高。

虽然大马股市在今年内有非常不错的表现，不过我的股票投资组合和第2季的投资回酬一样是跑输 KLCI。



在第3季，我的股票投资组合总共亏损了 5.32% （已将收到的股息计算在内），而如果只是单单计算资本回酬的话，亏损则达 7.14%

在股息方面，到目前为止股息回酬率为 1.14%。

目前 KIMLUN 在我的组合里百分比已经超越了 MUDAJYA，成为组合里的老大，共占了近50%。

而截至30/9/12，我手中依然持有的公司为 KIMLUN, MUDAJYA 和 UCHITEC。 RA 则在它公布了新一季的业绩后就卖出了，卖出日期为 3/9/12。

由于大选时间还不知道会落在何时，所以接下来我应该会选择继续观望，不会做出加码动作。这也是为了让手中的闲钱继续增加，以便当大熊来袭时，我拥有足够的资金来购入心目中的好公司。