卖出 MUDAJAYA 2000 units

在卖出了 KIMLUN 之后，接下来我也卖出了 MUDAJAYA，一共 2000 units。

会选择卖出的原因为：

1. 持有 MUDAJAYA 一年4个月，总回酬17%+。
2. 目前 RSI>70%， MACD 转弱。
3. 股价一直在 RM2.82 左右遇阻。

虽然今年会是建筑产业股的天下，不过近来股市有逐渐热络的现象，所以我暂时退出场外观看。

如果有适当的时机我还是会进场，不过还是保本位上。

手中剩下的股就是归类为股息组合里的  Tower REIT 和 SAPIND 了。

MUDAJAYA 股息

成荣宣布派息 2.5仙，使2012财政年总派息达 9仙，以现在股价 RM2.47 来计算，周息率为 3.64%，只比银行定存好一些。

目前还持有 2000股的 MUDAJAYA，所以得到的股息为 RM100 RM50。

持有这股大概一年多，总回酬（资本回酬+股息）为5%，比银行定存 3% 好。

原本打算在 5月5日投票日前减少持股，不过考虑到持股并不多，还有公司没有利空的消息，再加上建筑业在大选后可能将开始开跑，所以暂时还是持股观望、等股息。

Final Dividend

MUDAJAYA GROUP BERHAD

EX-date	24/06/2013
Entitlement date	26/06/2013
Entitlement time	05:00:00 PM
Entitlement subject	Final Dividend
Entitlement description	Final dividend of 12.5% (or 2.5 sen) per ordinary share of RM0.20 each under the single tier system for the financial year ended 31 December 2012.
Period of interest payment	to
Financial Year End	31/12/2012
Share transfer book & register of members will be	to closed from (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlements
Registrar's name ,address, telephone no	Symphony Share Registrars Sdn Bhd Level 6, Symphony House Block D13, Pusat Dagangan Dana 1 Jalan PJU 1A/46, 47301 Petaling Jaya Selangor Darul Ehsan Tel. No.:03-7841 8000
Payment date	16/07/2013
a.Securities transferred into the Depositor's Securities Account before 4:00 pm in respect of transfers	26/06/2013
b.Securities deposited into the Depositor's Securities Account before 12:30 pm in respect of securities exempted from mandatory deposit
c. Securities bought on the Exchange on a cum entitlement basis according to the Rules of the Exchange.
Number of new shares/securities issued (units) (If applicable)
Entitlement indicator	Percentage
Entitlement in percentage (%)	12.5

Mudajaya 目标价： RM4.27 (HLG - 22/1/13)

Mudajaya Group (BUY) - To power up Myanmar in 2014
Date: 22/01/2013

News

Business Times reported that according to sources, Mudajaya will start developing phase one of its recently signed power MOU with the Mandalay Region Government (Myanmar) by the second half of next year.

Phase one will be coal-fired to supply up to 500MW of electricity to the Mandalay region and is expected  to cost US$750m (US$1.5m per MW).

 

Comments

Recap! As highlighted in our report “Powering Myanmar” (dated 10 Jan-13), Mudajaya has partnered with Datuk Koon Yew Yin (70:30% stake) to establish a SPV for this Myanmar power venture.

Shedding more light! This is a positive development on the timeline and initial size of the venture.

However, it is still too early to conclude on the prospect as it is currently at the feasibility study stage.
There are still various issues to be resolved i.e. power purchase agreement, feedstock,  and funding facilities.

Earnings visibility! Meanwhile, Mudajaya will be occupied with its outstanding order book of ~RM2.5bn (see Figure #1), translating to ~2.1x FY11’s construction revenue and ~2.8x order book-to-market cap ratio.

 

Risks

• Delay in completing the India IPP project; 
• Regulatory and political risk (both local and abroad); 
• Rising raw material prices; 
• Unexpected downturn in the construction sector; and  
• Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

 

Forecasts

Unchanged as it is still too early to impute potential earnings from the Myanmar venture.

 

Rating

BUY
Positives:   (1) Completion of the India IPP project;   (2) Resolution of coal supply issue;   (3) New project wins.

Negatives:   (1) Delays in completing the India IPP project;   (2) Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

 

Valuation

TP of RM4.27 based on SOP valuation maintained (see Figure #2).

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 22 Jan 2013

Tradint Stock: Mudajaya

Mudajya  may  climb  higher  if  it  breaks  above  the  six-month resistance  level  of  RM2.80.  

A  position  can  be  initated  if  it  closes above  RM2.80,  with  a close  below  RM2.70  as  a  stop-loss.  

The  price target  is  the  2012  high  of  RM3.20,  if  the  psychological  RM3.00  is violated.  

Failure  to  break  above  RM2.80  should  see  the  stock continue sideways and supports are at RM2.60 and RM2.50.
(OSK)



MUDAJYA (5085 : 2.79 ) : Take profit
Description

Resistance : 2.84
Support : 2.73

RSI of 70
RSI is overbought

STOCHASTIC
It is overbought

Comment
On the 19/12/2012 buy call at 2.65, we are recommending to take profit at 2.78 due to overbought technicals

Trading Strategy
Take profit
Jupiter Securities Research - 18 January 2013 

Mudajaya Group (BUY) - Powering Myanmar

News
Mudajaya has partnered with Koon Yew Yin to sign a MOU with the Minister for Electricity and Industry, Mandalay Region Government (Myanmar), to set up coal-fired and solar-powered independent power plants in the region.

Mudajaya and Koon Yew Yin intent to establish a SPV to undertake this project whereby the former will have a 70% stake while the balance 30% stake with the latter.

Mudajaya will submit a feasibility report to Mandalay Region Government within 9 months and the MOU will expire at the end of 12 months unless an extension period is agreed by all parties.  

Comments
Cautiously optimistic… Although still at the MOU stage, this development is a positive newsflow for Mudajaya. However, we are cautiously optimistic at this venture as Mudajaya had few MOUs which have lapsed or yet to progress meaningfully. Moreover, Myanmar is considered a frontier market which is perceived to have higher country risks involved.

During the 9 months feasibility study period, we believe that Mudajaya will be looking at resolving various issues i.e. power purchase agreement, feedstock, and funding facilities.

Potential plant size… We believe that Mudajaya will be looking at replicating their India power plant project in Myanmar with a coal-powered generation capacity of 1,440MW (4x360MW), translating to a construction costs of ~RM4bn (at US$1m per MW).

19 sen/share… Assuming a debt-to-equity ratio of 75:25 and an IRR of 15%, this project will translate to a minimum return of RM105m (after adjusting for its 70% stake) or 19 sen/share for Mudajaya.

About Mr. Koon… Mr. Koon Yew Yin is a veteran in the construction industry and is one of the founders of IJM, Gamuda and Mudajaya. He also has a minority stake in Mudajaya as a passive investor. We believe that it is in his best interest to ensure that the venture is a success as he will also benefit from both the venture and Mudajaya’s share price appreciation.
 

Risks

Delay in completing the India IPP project; Regulatory and political risk (both local and abroad); Rising raw material prices; Unexpected downturn in the construction sector; and Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

 

Forecasts
Unchanged as it is still too early to impute potential earnings from the Myanmar venture.
 

Rating
BUY

Positives: (1) Completion of the India IPP project; (2) Resolution of coal supply issue; (3) New project wins.

Negatives: (1) Delays in completing the India IPP project; (2) Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.
 

Valuation
TP of RM4.27 based on SOP valuation maintained

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Jan 2013

个人投资报告 4Q12

虽然踏入股市正式两年，不过今年的回酬还是差强人意。

目前手中股票 80%， 现金20%。

KLCI 至今已从今年年头的 1530.73 上涨到了 31/12/12 的 1688.95，一共涨了 158.22 点或者 10.34%。令人跌破眼镜的是， KLCI 竟然可以在 31/12/12 临尾拉高！我看全世界也只有马来西亚政府会做这样的事情！

言归正传。如今投资组合里只剩下股票： Mudajaya, Kimlun, Uchitec 和 Taann，其中 Mudajaya 和 Kimlun 共占了组合接近 75%。

如果没有将收到的股息计算在内的话，那么今年只有 Mudajaya 给我 4.67% 的资本利得，周息率为 3.61% （只比银行利息好些许），总回酬为 8.27%（资本利得+股息）。

而组合里的其他股票都处于亏损状态，其中以 Kimlun 和 Taann 亏损最为严重，达 8% 和10.8%。只怪当初在高位买入 Kimlun，虽然之后还是有继续加码，不过由于 Kimlun 在调整后处于横摆状态，所以到目前为止还在亏损。而且原本预则 Kimlun 会在 2012年宣布 2012财政年的第一次派息，但结果没有，所以周息率只有 0.8%。

至于会买入 Taann 也是纯粹因为认为它是好公司而买入，结果价钱也是在我买入后跌跌不休，亏损达 10.82%。

2012 年唯一卖出的股票是 RA，一共亏损38%，算是投机失败（原本看好业绩会步步高升）。不过还好金额不大，算是交了学费。

As a conclusion，2012 年我的投资组合总共亏损 6.4%，如果将股息计算在内的话，回酬为 -3.88%，大大落后大市的 10.34%。

Stock Overview - MUDAJYA - 19 Dec 2012

MUDAJYA (5085 : 2.65 ) : Targeting 2.80/Stop loss 2.58

Description

Resistance : 2.80
Support : 2.60

RSI of 58
RSI is on a buy divergence

STOCHASTIC
It is oversold

Comment
The current upmove is heading for 2.80

Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 2.58

Source: Jupiter Securities Research - 19 December 2012

“煤炭門＂有望告一段落‧成榮進軍印度疑慮解除

（吉隆坡14日訊）印度最大電力公司短期可能簽署燃料供應協議（FSA），讓紛擾多時的印度“煤炭門＂事件有望告一段落，分析員認為更多發電廠可能跟進， 將緩和投資者對成榮集團（MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑組）進軍印度發電市場疑慮，並為該股評級帶來重新評估機會。

僑豐研究表示，印度總理公署早前設定今年11月為印度煤炭有限公司（CIL）與獨立發電廠（IPP）簽署所有FSA的最終期限，但公司現僅完成33項FSA，並與其餘超過100家公司繼續展開洽商。

“不過，洽商工作似乎取得進展，我們對印度最大電力公司――NTPC有限公司可能在1個月內與CIL簽署新FSA消息感到驚喜。＂僑豐說，儘管相關FSA 細節欠奉，但相信內容與CIL董事部批准的草案並無重大變動，意味著CIL有望取得更好的交易，其建議的違約罰金雖引來現有部份發電廠強烈反對，但仍可能 獲得保留。

“基於F S A洽商活動一延再延，市場已面對燃料短缺問題，因此我們相信NTPC最新動作顯示部份發電廠可能讓步，以確保現有業務儘快恢復正常。＂該證券行認為，隨著 NTPC可能拍板，將為CIL結束和其他發電廠冗長的洽商工作鋪平道路，但罰款機制現反映出CIL的低承諾水平（至少是首5年），不排除市場出現潛在的供 應短缺問題。

“我們相信引頸長盼的FSA洽商工作可能結束，將對印度電力公司是一大好事。＂僑豐指出，雖然成榮持有26%股權的聯號公司――RKM Powergen私人有限公司以相對欠佳的條款完成洽商工作，相信這仍有利轉嫁投資者對公司進軍印度IPP市場的疑慮。

“儘管集團已取得9千900萬公噸的煤炭儲備，估計可滿足15年需求，但據悉官方礦業執照卻遲遲未能發出，因此FSA簽署變得至關重要。＂有鑑於此，僑豐 很高興“煤炭門＂事件終露出曙光，情況可能告一段落，預見更多發電廠將尾隨NTPC與CIL完成供應磋商，儘管相關發電廠短期內料仍無法全力投產，但相信 隨著FSA完成將為領域打下一劑強心針，有望舒緩投資者對燃料短缺需作出適當賠償的憂慮，令成榮浮現立即評級重估機會。

“因此，我們決定上調評級至｀短線買進’，但盈利目標則暫時維持。＂

（星洲日報／財經）

Mudajaya 目标价：RM3.13 （OSK- 12/12/12）

Mudajaya Group - Clouds Clear as Coal Mess Dissipates

With the Indian government's November deadline for CIL and power producers to seal their fuel supply agreements  (FSAs) now well and truly over, we take a look at  some  recent  developments  in  that country's power  sector.  We  believe  the lengthy  chapter  on  the  coal  epic  may finally be closing since NTPC Ltd, CIL's biggest  customer,  is  likely  to  sign  its  FSA by  Jan  2013.  As  this  may  spark  a  re-rating, we are upgrading our call to TRADING BUY, and lifting our FV to RM3.13.

November  deadline  over.  The  Prime  Minister's  Office  had  earlier  on  set  November 2012  as  the  ultimate  deadline  for  Coal  India  Ltd  (CIL)  to  firm  up  all  fuel  supply agreements  (FSAs)  with  independent  power  producers  (IPPs).  This  involved  49  power units that were set up between July 2009 and Dec 2011, as well as 81 units that are to be commissioned between Jan 2012 and March 2015. As at this juncture, CIL has only finalized  33  FSAs  while  discussions  with  the  remaining  more  than  100  companies  are still ongoing.

NTPC to give green light. While the negotiations seemed to have made little progress earlier, we are now positively surprised by news that NTPC Ltd, the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company, is expected to sign the newly formulated FSA with CIL within  a  month.  This  was  confirmed  by  NTPC  chairman  Arup  Roychoudhury  and  CIL chief,  Narsing  Rao.  The  decision  was  reached  after  top  executives  from  the  two companies met on Monday. NTPC, currently CIL's single biggest customer, will take up more  than  35%  of  the  coal  that  CIL  would  be  supplying  under  the  new  FSA.  We understand that the proposal will now be presented to the boards of the two companies for ratification, with the CIL board scheduled to meet today while NTPC's board will be convening next Wednesday.
 
CIL has the upper hand. While the details on the soon-to-be-signed FSA are still scant at this juncture, we gather from sources that there would not be any changes to the draft that  has  been  approved  by  CIL's board earlier. That  being  the  case,  this  would  imply that CIL has gotten the better of the deal, with its proposed penalty clause likely to stay put for now despite strong objections from some of the existing power producers for an upward revision in the penalty in the event of a coal supply shortfall. Already facing fuel shortages due to the prolonged delay in firming up the FSAs, we believe NTPC's latest move indicates that some of the power players might have finally given in to ensure that their existing operations return to normal as soon as possible.

Others likely to follow suit. We believe that NTPC's decision to come on board could possibly pave the way for  the  conclusion  of  the  long-drawn  FSA  negotiations between  CIL  and  all  the  remaining  power  producers. While we do not discount the potential  of a supply shortfall based on the proposed penalty structure - which we  think  reflects the low  level  of  commitment on CIL's part, at  least in  the  first 3  to 5  years  -  we  find some comfort  in  the  fact  that  the  potential  conclusion  of  the  long-awaited  FSAs  is  in  the  interest  of  India's power producers.

The  skies  clear  up  for  RKM  Powergen.  Should  RKM  Powergen  conclude  its  FSA  negotiations  with  CIL albeit at less-than-desirable terms, we believe this would still mitigate the concerns over Mudajaya's venture into India's IPP sector. Although the group had previously secured a back-up block of 99m tonnes of coal that could last for more than 15 years, we understand from management that the official mining licence has yet to be approved and hence, finalizing the FSA was essential. The first unit of RKM Powergen's 4x360MW power plant is expected to commence operation by end-1Q13, while the remaining three should come on stream on a staggered basis every three months thereafter.
 
Upgrade to TRADING BUY. We are glad that there is now light at the end of the tunnel as the much-debated ''coal-gate'' episode is potentially  coming  to  an  end. We  see  more  power  producers  following  suit  now  that NTPC has agreed to conclude its supply negotiations with CIL. Although these power plants might not be able to operate at full capacity in the near term unless more extensive arrangements  governing coal imports, coal price pooling and accelerated domestic mining approvals are in place, we believe the finalizing of the FSAs, which got a shot in the arm after NTPC came on board, could spark an immediate re-rating for Mudajaya, at least  by  way  of  alleviating  investor  concerns  over  adequate  compensation  in  the  event  of  a  fuel  shortfall.  Hence,  we  are  upgrading  our  call  on  Mudajaya  to  TRADING  BUY  but  our  forecasts  stay  for  now.  We  are revising  higher  our  SOP-based  FV  to  RM3.13,  but  pegging  a  marginally  lower  discount  of  45%  vs  50% previously, as India's coal supply woes are finally reaching a solution.

Source: OSK

Mudajaya 的 2.5 sen 股息

昨天是成荣集团的股息除权日。

除权后股价调整至 RM 2.55，接下来就等 11/01/2013 的到来，等待 RM 0.025 的股息。

以我现在持有共 2000 units 的 MUDAJAYA，我即将收取 RM0.025 x 2000 units = RM50。

如果加上之前在7月除权的 RM0.04 股息，在2012 财政年我所得到的股息为 RM0.025+0.04 = RM0.0625，周息率为 2.6%。

预计下季还会派发 Final dividend 12.5% 或 RM0.025，使全年股息达 RM0.09，周息率为3.6%。

Company Name	MUDAJAYA GROUP BERHAD
Stock Name	MUDAJYA
Date Announced	21 Nov 2012
Category	Entitlements (Notice of Book Closure)
Reference No	MG-121105-39210

EX-date	12/12/2012
Entitlement date	14/12/2012
Entitlement time	05:00:00 PM
Entitlement subject	Second interim dividend
Entitlement description	Second interim dividend of 12.5% (or 2.5 sen) per ordinary share of RM0.20 each under the single tier system for the financial year ending 31 December 2012.
Period of interest payment	to
Financial Year End	31/12/2012
Share transfer book & register of members will be	to closed from (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlements
Registrar's name ,address, telephone no	Symphony Share Registrars Sdn Bhd Level 6, Symphony House Block D13, Pusat Dagangan Dana 1 Jalan PJU 1A/46, 47301 Petaling Jaya Selangor Darul Ehsan Tel. No.:03-7841 8000
Payment date	11/01/2013
a.Securities transferred into the Depositor's Securities Account before 4:00 pm in respect of transfers	14/12/2012
b.Securities deposited into the Depositor's Securities Account before 12:30 pm in respect of securities exempted from mandatory deposit
c. Securities bought on the Exchange on a cum entitlement basis according to the Rules of the Exchange.
Number of new shares/securities issued (units) (If applicable)
Entitlement indicator	Percentage
Entitlement in percentage (%)	12.5

Mudajaya 目标价： RM4.27 (HLG) - 3/12/12

Highlights

StarBizWeek featured an article on Mudajaya and we are pleasantly surprised by some of the prospects.

RAPID plant? After failing to pre-qualify for the Prai power plant. The article reported that the company is in discussion for at least a 20% stake in a new IPP. This could be for the 1,200MW power plant in RAPID, Pengerang.

However, we are not too bullish on the prospects of coowning the power plant as Keppel is also in negotiations with Petronas and it can offer the opportunity to supply electricity to Singapore. Nonetheless, Mudajaya may still be successful as the contractor with works estimated to be ~RM500m.

On a separate note, TNB has awarded Samsung the EPC contract for the Prai power plant worth RM1.88bn. We believe that Mudajaya may end up wining some role as a subcontractor worth RM400-500m.

Another highway? Besides bidding for the Kinrara Damansara Expressway worth ~RM1bn, Mudajaya is also part of a consortium bidding for a tolled-highway concession located along one of the peninsular growth corridors. The bid is nearing submission after discussions over the past 1.5 years and is hopping for approval over the next 2-3 months.

Landbank deal? Tendered for Public-Private Partnership project whereby it involves the construction of infrastructure facilities in return for landbank. The land is reported to be a couple of hundred acres within a 20-km radius from KL with a GDV of RM1.5bn. This will be a huge boost to its property division whereby FY11’s property revenue is only RM34m. Assuming that the land cost is 20% of GDV, the project is worth ~RM300m.

Coal updates Although the FSA for coal supply was supposed to be finalised by 15 Nov, it was delayed by one or two clauses, which is mainly the arbitration clause. The agreement has been 99% finalised and we believe that a mutual consensus will be reached to resolve the coal issue.

Earnings visibility Meanwhile, Mudajaya will be occupied with its outstanding order book of ~RM2.5bn (see Figure #1), translating to ~2.1x FY11’s construction revenue and ~2.8x order book-to-market cap ratio.

Risks

Delay in completing the India IPP project; Regulatory and political risk (both local and abroad); Rising raw material prices; Unexpected downturn in the construction sector; and Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

Rating

BUY

• Positives: (1) Completion of the India IPP project; (2) Resolution of coal supply issue; (3) New project wins.
• Negatives: (1) Delays in completing the India IPP project; (2) Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

Valuation

• TP of RM4.27 based on SOP valuation maintained

Mudajya 业绩出炉兼宣布派息

Mudajaya 2102 第三季度业绩出炉了。qoq 的 revenue 下挫36.8%， profit before tax 下挫 18.5%， net profit 则下挫 8.4%。

第三季 EPS 则为 RM0.1014，到目前为止 EPS 总共为 (13.61+11.08+10.14=34.83 sen)。

而 Mudajaya 也在今季宣布派息 12.5% 或 2.5 sen，到目前为止总派息为 (4 sen + 2.5 sen) 6.5 sen。以目前 RM2.60 股价来计算，周息率为2.5%。 如果预计全年派息 9 sen 的话，那么周息率则为3.46%。

目前我一共持有 2000 units 的 Mudajya, 买入的平均价格为 RM2.52。所以如果全年派息达 9sen，那么它给与我的利息为3.57%。

MUDAJYA Quarter Report History

Announcement Date	Financial Year	Quarter Number	Financial Quarter	Revenue (RM,000)	Profit Before Tax (RM,000)	Net Profit (RM,000)	Earning Per Share (Cent)	Dividend (Cent)	NTA (RM)
21/11/2012	31/12/2012	3	30/09/2012	352,683	63,348	55,255	10.14	0.00	2.000
27/08/2012	31/12/2012	2	30/06/2012	558,811	77,810	60,398	11.08	4.00	1.980
28/05/2012	31/12/2012	1	31/03/2012	440,491	94,014	74,242	13.61	4.00	1.850

Mudajaya Group (BUY)

News

• Mudajaya has secured a contract for the construction of a 400-room hotel in LCCT KLIA from Tune Hotel for RM65m. The project is expected to be completed on 22 November 2013 (~1 year duration).

Comments

• Small but positive The contract sum of RM65m is relatively immaterial, only representing ~5% of FY11’s construction revenue and ~2% of its current outstanding order book of ~RM2.9bn. Although the project is small, the nature of the project which has to be completed within a year, is prove of Mudajaya’s engineering ability to deliver the project both on time and within budget.
• Tune hat trick This hotel project also marks the third contract that Mudajaya has secured from Tune Hotel. The first was in LCCT which was awarded in May-08 for RM15m while the second was in Danga Bay which was awarded in Jun-09 for RM19.9m. Both hotels were for ~200 rooms.
• 1.2 sen/share Assuming a net profit margin of 10%, this hotel project would translate to ~1.2 sen/share for Mudajaya.
• Earnings visibility With the latest order, outstanding order book has inched up slightly to ~RM3.0bn (see Figure #1), translating to ~2.5x FY11’s construction revenue and ~2.0x order book-to-market cap ratio.

Risks

• Delay in completing the India IPP project;
• Regulatory and political risk (both local and abroad);
• Rising raw material prices;
• Unexpected downturn in the construction sector; and
• Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

Forecasts

• Unchanged.

Rating

BUY

• Positives:

1. Completion of the India IPP project;
2. Resolution of coal supply issue;
3. New project wins.

• Negatives:

1. Delays in completing the India IPP project;
2. Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

Valuation

• TP of RM4.27 based on SOP valuation maintained

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 30 Oct 2012

Mudajaya - To Build Hotel Near KLIA

THE BUZZ

Mudajaya announced that it has accepted a Letter of Award from TP Sepang SB, a company under Tune Group, to construct a Tune Hotel near KLIA in Sepang, Selangor for a total sum of RM65m. The project is expected to be completed by November 2013.

OUR TAKE

Slightly positive. The contract involves the construction of a 400-room hotel with a pedestrian walkway as well as other related facilities. We believe that the hotel is intended to cater to the upcoming low-cost carrier terminal, KLIA2. While Mudajaya's management had previously highlighted the possibility of bagging this job, the announcement was a small but positive surprise as we did not expect any new job wins for the remainder of the year.

RM1.9bn worth of new jobs secured YTD. With this contract now in the bag, Mudajaya would have secured more than RM1.9bn worth of new jobs YTD. Taking this new contribution into account bumps up our FY13 net profit forecast by 3.0% to RM323.7m while our FY12 and FY14 numbers are unchanged.

NEUTRAL. All in, while we are positive on the surprise contract win, we maintain NEUTRAL on Mudajaya for now, with our SOP-based FV unchanged at RM2.88, pegged to our FY12 forecast. We have yet to roll forward our valuation to FY13 pending the outcome of ongoing negotiations between India's Ministry of Coal and Ministry of Power, which we believe could pave the way for the long-awaited signing of the fuel supply agreements between Mudajaya's 26%-owned associate RKM Powergen and Coal India Ltd.

Source: OSK

Mudajaya Group (BUY) - Potentially Powering Prai

News

• Tenaga has been awarded the new 1,071MW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) Prai Power Plant with capex of RM3bn. The plant is targeted to commission by March 2016.

Comments

• Prai potential Recall in our previous Mudajaya report, Powering the Future, dated 5-Mar-12. We believe that Mudajaya stands a strong chance in securing civil-related works portion for the Prai power plant worth some RM300-450m (estimated 10-15% of power plant costs). We understand that ground works will have to begin by 1QCY13 in order to complete the power plant in time.
• Strong track record With its strong track record and currently undertaking civil works for both the Janamanjung and Tanjung Bin power plant extension project, we believe that Mudajaya has a niche over its competitors in securing this power-related works. Thus, this news will be positive for the company and the potential new contract would act as a share price catalyst.
• More power works With the Prai power plant awarded, we estimate that there is still 3,500MW gas-fired and 1,000MW coal-fired power capacity to be awarded by Suruhanjaya Tenaga by 2016. Coupled with RAPID’s 1,300MW gas-fired power plant, these developments will allow Mudajaya to continue on replenishing its order book going forward.
• Overall, Mudajaya has an outstanding order book of ~RM2.9bn, translating to ~2.5x FY11’s construction revenue and ~1.9x order book-to-market cap ratio.

Risks

• Delay in completing the India IPP project;
• Regulatory and political risk (both local and abroad);
• Rising raw material prices;
• Unexpected downturn in the construction sector; and
• Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

Forecasts

• Unchanged.

Rating

BUY

• Positives:
  1. Completion of the India IPP project;
  2. Resolution of coal supply issue;
  3. New project wins.
• Negatives:
  1. Delays in completing the India IPP project;
  2. Sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and US dollar.

Valuation

• TP of RM4.27 based on SOP valuation maintained

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 10 Oct 2012

Mudajaya: To bid for Pengerang power plant pre-Q

Mudajaya Group Bhd will submit its bid for the pre-qualification (pre-Q) called by Petronas on the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) job for the latter's power plant at its Rapid project in Pengerang, Johor. Group MD and CEO Anto Joseph said that it would tie up with another "one or two" foreign partners for the contract. "The submission for the pre-Q will close by Oct 24 or 25. I'm not sure how many are in the race, but I am expecting around 4 to 5 parties," he said. (Financial Daily)  

Source: ECM Newz Bits 09 October 2012

个人投资报告 3Q12

哇。。。时间流逝的真快，不知不觉2012 年已经踏入第4季，也是时候要来回顾第三季的投资报告了。

KLCI 至今已从今年年头的 1530.73 上涨到了 28/9/12 的 1636.66，一共涨了 105.93点或者 6%。这段时期内指数最低下探至1502.09，最高则上升至 1655.49，也创造了大马股市的历史新高。

虽然大马股市在今年内有非常不错的表现，不过我的股票投资组合和第2季的投资回酬一样是跑输 KLCI。



在第3季，我的股票投资组合总共亏损了 5.32% （已将收到的股息计算在内），而如果只是单单计算资本回酬的话，亏损则达 7.14%

在股息方面，到目前为止股息回酬率为 1.14%。

目前 KIMLUN 在我的组合里百分比已经超越了 MUDAJYA，成为组合里的老大，共占了近50%。

而截至30/9/12，我手中依然持有的公司为 KIMLUN, MUDAJYA 和 UCHITEC。 RA 则在它公布了新一季的业绩后就卖出了，卖出日期为 3/9/12。

由于大选时间还不知道会落在何时，所以接下来我应该会选择继续观望，不会做出加码动作。这也是为了让手中的闲钱继续增加，以便当大熊来袭时，我拥有足够的资金来购入心目中的好公司。